UBS
jonasfrancobd

I believed it would be entertaining to lay upwards some extracts from UBS as we roll into Q3 profitses.


Uche Orji, the UBS analyst, does his best endeavours to justify his recent downgrade to Sell.


Apparently its bad intelligence that NAND costs are strong ( negative cost snap ), while at the same clip its bad tidings that costs could weaken ( seasonal demand extremum restricting farther ASP increases ).


Not surprisingly, Uche drops to cite Sanjay 's 100 % spot demand development for 2009 Deutsche Bank remarks. Neither makes Uche reference SanDisk 's alteration of bosom viewing the merchandising of wafers.


Tues will say how the one-quarter played out. FWIW, my return is that the word will be good much to Uche 's mortification but, it will take Q1 2010 to get a read on how 2010 is attending play out.


UBS holds SanDisk 's Q3 top line coming inward at $ 776M; Litre & R at $ 113M; Merchandise Grams at 18 %; and Perfunctorily EPS at $0.15.


No consideration was given to a possible inventory charge opposite.


FWIW, my proceeds is that top line holds a good shooting of surpassing $ 900M. The top upwards driven by wafer sales from ( surplus ) inventory. Although we 'll belike ne'er cognise, my supposition is that the bulk of these wafers are designated for Apple, likelily via Toshiba.


If plenties of wafers hold been sold at good costs, SNDK will take an inventory charge contrary.


UBS likelily holds merchandise Gramme right at around 18 %.


Non-GAAP EPS looks likely to be the stopper, easily transcending Q2 's $0.36. Likelily over $0.50. In the best instance, if the stars align, over $0.60.


The large enquiry is 2010. Should Q3 be outstanding, the bears such as UBS will reason that recent strength is merely attributable to one clip events and the underside will fall call at Q1 2010.


UBS holds ware Gramme for Q1 2010 coming inward at 17 %. UBS besides is judging Liter & Rs for Q1 2010 to come inward under $ 70M. Both these Numbers look low to me.


The figure to watch for 2010 is ware GMs. UBS anticipates SNDK ware GMs for 2010 to be under 20 %. I believe UBS ideas will prove rattlingly verily low, but-


Clip will state.


*** UBS extracts below ****


UBS
12 Oct 2009


Uche Orji, Analyst


Nearing Seasonal Extremum. Downgrade to Sell


Anticipating peak demand by mid-C4Q to bound farther ASP hold


With NAND spot/contract pricing upward 24 % /9 % in Q3 and vacation ware constructs typically complete by mid-C4Q, we downgrade SNDK to a Sell evaluation based on: 1 ) negative cost snap that could trammel spot sales, 2 ) a seasonal demand extremum in Oct/Nov that could restrict farther ASP increases, a cardinal accelerator for shares, 3 ) G downside jeopardy from new, lower Samsung royalty rates taking issue. Downgrade to Sell valuation with an unchanged $ 18 Platinum.


Greater exposure to retail could restrain spot loading upside


Whilst we make anticipate SNDK perimeters to amend meaningfully in 2H09, retail card sales could be negatively impacted by higher costs or fewer publicities. Comparative to compeers, SNDK holds low embedded NAND exposure in high capacity smartphones ( 16GB or higher ), a ware that we believe is driving much of the demand strength in Q3 and similar to late Q1/Q2. Though industry supply maturation is moderate, Q1 demand seasonality is likely to be unsupportive for ASPs.


Gramme top could be throttle by new royalty rate, non-captive premix ontogenesis


We believe G upside offered by higher costs and cost step-downs from the 32nm migration could be partially countervail by the effects of lower Samsung royalty rates, which hold a partial one-fourth 's result in Q4, and the displacement to a more balanced 30 % non-captive spot supply premix in coming quarters.


Rating: $ 18 12-month Platinum; Downgrade to Sell Valuation
Our DCF-based Platinum of $ 18 is equiv to1.3x P/BV. Sell evaluation. SNDK merchandise at a P/BV of1.4x or consistent with a more normalized mid-cycle reach.


Investing Thesis


We are downgrading SanDisk to a Sell valuation from Neutral with an unchanged cost mark of $ 18. Our new view on SanDisk is predicated on expectations for: 1) negative price elasticity that could limit the potential upside to earnings as a result of higher NAND flash prices leading to weaker unit or total bit capacity sales, 2) the approaching seasonal demand peak in October/November that could lead to weaker NAND flash ASPs starting in December, and thus serves as a negative catalyst for SanDisk shares given that it historically has tracked memory prices, 3) potential gross margin downside risk from the company's royalty revenue stream which will see a pronounced decline starting in the December 2009 quarter and again in the March 2010 quarter due to new
Samsung royalty rates taking consequence, and despite on-going manufacture cost step-downs that should assist to keep or meliorate profit margin especially in a benign to amend cost environment. Moreover, SanDisk is likewise on path to pull away to a more balanced fab-lite framework where 25-30 % of spots are sourced from external providers and so could confine the top to borders in coming quarters.


Negative Cost Snap


We guess that approx 85-90 % of SanDisk 's receipts are from existent ware sales and the bulk of that comes from retail or bundled card salesvs. embedded NAND sales into mass storage applications. This big retail exposure takes SanDisk to be highly contingent on consumer tendencies and cost snap. Though it is apparent from company statistics over the past 7 ages that an gain in ASP per spot will conduct to a lessening in NAND content or spots per card sold, the R^2 is simply0.50. Since SanDisk is vertically incorporated and presently buys to a lesser degree 5 % of its spots sold from external providers, we believe the company holds confined pressure to raise costs in order to keep or amend profit margin given cost diminutions enabled by the 32nm migration. Yet, contingent on the fiscal wellness of SanDisk 's competitions you bet much ware perimeters are already compact referable higher NAND contract costs, SanDisk may prefer to follow rivals in raising costs or engage less discounting in coming months. While it is ill-defined whether SanDisk would take vantage of the current environment to derive percentage, we make believe profitableness is a cardinal target and holding marketplace part.


We observe that SanDisk makes hold a really modest sum of exposure to embedded NAND applications such as smartphones through its iNAND ware house. Our ain retail cheques signal that retail memory cards are still being disregarded modestly whilst micro signifier factor cards are in some instances no more being bundled with handsets/smartphones compared to the common pattern of including at least a little capacity card. We believe much of the shelf infinite for flash merchandises is dedicated to USB flash thrusts and SD/Compact flash cards and generally less infinite for microSD or Memory Stick Professional Distich. We make mention that SanDisk holded the most shelf infinite of any other retail marque and fewer marques were vying for shelf infinite as a whole.


Seasonal Demand Extremum Approach


The manufacture of merchandises slated to be sold during the late November through twelvemonth terminal vacation selling season typically reason by late-October to mid-November and typically coincides with the extremum in NAND flash cost grasp. Based on DRAMeXchange data, the NAND place ASP M/M % alteration in October over the past 5 ages was -5 %, and compares to the upward +9 % seen in 2009 heretofore. In the two month period terminating in November, the 5-year norm presents a -14 % diminution while the three month or quarterly Q4 norm over the last 5 eld is a -25 % diminution.


2005 was the last clip ASP tendencies were upwards in Oct and the 2 month period terminating in Nov. That period was tagged by the strong development of portable media participants as a new demand accelerator, but seasonality still promptly inherited drama by December guiding to a Q/Q ASP diminution of -3 %. We anticipate a similar tendency to play out over the residuum of 2009 given that retailers are likely to not construct important sums of inventory and the incline of new smartphone merchandises is likely timed to cooccur with vacation launches and sales publicities.


New Lower Royalty Rate Could Affect Margins


From a margin of profit position, we believe SanDisk 's nucleus ware manufacture and sales operations should see stable to amend profit margin in Q3 and Q4 especially in a benign to ameliorating cost environment. From an overall margin of profit position, the December 2009 one-fourth will be the first to allow the new Samsung royalty rate ( partial issue of 1 month ) that is around one-half of the anterior rate. Royalties stay a fundamental or only root of profitableness in SanDisk 's overall concern given how competitory the retail NAND marketplace stays.


Moreover, SanDisk is likewise on course to draw back to a more balanced fab-lite framework where 25-30 % of spots are outsourced and thence could throttle the top to perimeters in future quarters. This is not likely to hold a important impact until internal inventories are cutted to a more normalized degree. If SanDisk 's procurance of external NAND supply coincides with farther additions in NAND pricing imputable limited supply ontogeny, so we believe the incremental grosses could hold lower perimeter colligated with it.


Evaluation


From a evaluation position, SanDisk is merchandise at a P/BV ratio of1.4x and compares to trough-peak orbit of0.3-8.0x with a more `` normalized '' compass of1.5-3.0x. The current1.4x ratio is likewise in line with Micrometer 's current P/BV and historical compass of1.0-2.0x. On an EV/Sales ground, SanDisk is merchandise at1.3x or at a deduction to Micrometer 's2.1x volts a `` normalized '' reach of1.5-3.0x which is similar to Micrometer. We believe that with a move to a more balance fab-lite manufacture framework that includes 25-30 % of spots secured from outside providers and a royalty receipts rate from Samsung that is efficaciously one-half of the anterior rate, SanDisk may not earn the same extremum multiples as it holds in anterior rhythms given the altering nature of its operating framework.


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SingTel Nets Hit by Currency Changes
jonasfrancobd

Singapore Telecommunications ( SingTel ) holds account that its quaternary fiscal ( 1st calendar ) quartern 's underlying net fell0.9 pct to Sec $ 959 million ( America $ 657 million ) from a yr ago impacted by the weak Australian dollar and major regional currencies.


For the full yr, the Grouping 's operating gross was stable at Second $14.93 billion ( US $10.2 billion ). The strong Singapore dollar impacted the Grouping 's full twelvemonth effects.


While gross in local currency footings increased8.7 per cent in Australia and 13 per cent in Singapore, the Grouping 's operating gross in the one-fourth fell5.1 per cent to Sec $3.57 billion as a upshot of the steep 21 per cent diminution in the Australian dollar against the Singapore dollar from a twelvemonth ago. Grouping receipts would hold derived 10 per cent with operational EBITDA increasing 13 per cent in unvarying currency footings if the Australian dollar holded rested invariant against the Singapore dollar from the analogous one-fourth last twelvemonth.


The Grouping entered goodwill harm charges of Sec $ 330 million ( America $ 226 million ) for Pakistan 's Warid Telecommunication and Bangladesh 's CityCell, that were partially countervail by an prodigious addition of Second $ 217 ( America $ 149 million ) million from Bharti 's dilution of its equity involvement in a subordinate.


MS Chua Sock Koong, SingTel Grouping Chief operating officer, told: `` This one-fourth, Australia and Singapore proceeded their strong impulse and demoed resiliency with their impressive receipts and nets growing despite the economical uncertainnesses. Profitses from Optus and the associates were impacted by the strong Singapore dollar but Telkomsel exhibited marks of meliorate its marketplace portion and Bharti kept to do goodly. ''


MS Chua added: `` SingTel keeps to look for new investings in Asia and emerging next marketplaces and will be financially trained in its rating of these chances. ''


Rootage: cellular tidings


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Trip Sum-up
jonasfrancobd

Stadiums seed: 6


Mis traveled: 2, 017


Mileposts:


  • Derek Jeter binding Henry louis gehrig for most hits at Yankee Arena.


Park Rankings


1. PNC Park

The best of the best so far, this locale bluster a broad pick of nutrient, a beautiful perspective, and the cleanest arena of the clustering. It Holds one of baseball 's Crown gems.
Mark: 77


2. Rogers Centre

This holds been the most surprising halt on the circuit up to now. None of us anticipated the grade to sack out so high, but it maked, and you ca n't reason with Numbers. If you get a opportunity to see a game and see the metropolis of Toronto, have sex.
Mark:75.5

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3. Progressive Field

One of the old new stadiums, this one far excelled our expectations and rendered a great ambiance for a baseball.
Grade: 74


4. Great American Ballpark

So what if they took the squad 's moniker to the extreme with this red-hued arena. It Holds a snug spot to see a game. Seed for the Reds, remain for the Pretzilla.
Mark:68.5


5. Yankee Stadium

If you desire to be a constituent of baseball history, this is the spot. But if you hold n't been, it Holds overly belatedly now: it Holds shutted permanently.
Mark: 66


6. Shea Stadium

The worst of the clustering so far, the steep upper deck, rusty places, and general blandness of the parkland maked n't make much to move us.
Mark: 40


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Bozeman Art Walks on 2d Fri
jonasfrancobd

The downtown Art Walking
season commences 6-8 post-mortem Friday, June 12
, and keeps through Sept. The Bozeman Chronicle article
holds a list of galleries and featured artists. The Emerson galleries are besides participating. Of note are two shows from galleries that, for one ground or another, recently lost physical locations: Chaparral Fine Art

, demoing at Epoch Landmark, and Montana Trails

, with a new location at 402 Tocopherol Briny.


Update:
Not downtown, but besides particpating in the first Art Walking, is the Misco Manufactory Gallery
at Wallace and E Cottonwood ( across from the Lehrkind Sign ). Read more about artist Shaw Thompson and the gallery in Bozeman Magazine


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Where The Wild Things Ar 10 Arcade Fire `` Backwash Up ''
jonasfrancobd

So I cognize I am not highly speedy on posting this, but I can not draw how stoked I am for the release of Where The Wild Things Are coming09.09.09 The picture is attending be handled none otherwise Spike Jonze. With a sweet lagger supported by Arcade Fire 's `` Backwash Up. '' Relish the drone and if you make n't mind the teaser of only 2 proceedings, so download the mp3 below. Enjoy!


Arcade Fire - "Wake Up" X Where The Wild Things Are


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Only Funny
jonasfrancobd



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ich weiss du willst DA auch
jonasfrancobd

on ju ilus laul see `` Shit the Ripper '' ( vt eelmist )? udselt ilus. nii ilus kohe, et tekib tahtmine pimedal tnaval kndides selja taha kiigata ja sammu kiirendada.


sellega meenus veel ks imearmas psychotic stalker
i / vgistaja lauluke...


momma tean, et Sturmabteilung oled ksi
pti, kui vastik, kui ingliskeelne vaste enne phe kargab kui eestikeelne... track? ok, viskame kirvest...
) sest mommy tajun, kus Sturmabteilung oled
miski ei saa meid enam lahutada
keegi peale minu ei tea, mida Sturmabteilung tunned
keegi peale minu ei tea, mida SA tahad
keegi peale minu ei tea, kes Sturmabteilung oled
mamma ei lase Sind enam lahti




oo, ja siis muidugi Stingi `` Every Breath You Take ''.


veh, maniakid. kus on mu pipragaas.


PS ikka imestan avastades, et saksa keelest vahel ht-teist aru saan, suure surmaga vedasin terminal kunagi algajatest ja edasijudnutest lbi... grammatika on mmargune zero, aga kangesti meeldib snade thendusi mistatada ( fantastiline, mida kike nt eesliidetega teha annab ).
umbes: ahaa, see sna extremums olema mingi verb ja tundub, et Ta sisaldub zwei
, nii et konteksti arvestades peab see olema `` lahku ajama '' vms.
Aki, krt, radium muiga, niimoodi on palju huvitavam Kui snaraamatust npuga jrge ajada.


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How to compute a real estate tax in the phlippines particularly in Tarlac, Tarlac?
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Does anybody know any good Cock-A-Chon training websites?
jonasfrancobd
Do you know any Cock-A-Chon training websites?
I'm also wondering if there are any websites with high-quality clips/videos on training. I'm taking a class soon and I am interested in getting a head start.

Daily Diigo Associates 05/28/2009
jonasfrancobd

Intelligence and Pa Civilization


Discover papa civilisation mentions, a sports almanac, new literature ushers and more in that listing.


  1. Who's Alive and Who's Dead

    : Maintain course of which noted players, performers, histrions, jocks and political figures are live and which ones are dead.

  2. AllMusic.com

    : Hunt by genre like stone, nothingness, dad, creation, blame or bluenesses.

  3. Dictionary of Pop Culture References

    : From A to Z, you can chance words, phrases and characters from dad civilisation.

  4. Encyclopedia Smithsonian

    : Shop subjects like Japanese art, uranology, gardening, popular amusement, domestic life, preservation and more on this say-so site.

  5. Science.gov Energy and Energy Conservation

    : Bump new and archived articles about energy preservation here.

  6. Internet Broadway Database

    : Refer managers, histrions and more for all Broadway demoes here.

  7. Grove Music Online

    : This site is `` the creation 's premier say-so on all facets of music. ''

  8. bibliomania

    : Over 2, 000 authoritative texts can be happened on this site, likewise as mention books, survey ushers and associates to purchase books.

  9. Sports Almanac

    : From the Olympiad to hockey, you can encounter everything there is to cognise about sports history and participants on this site.

  10. Newsknife

    : This mention site ranks the top word sites by each particular tale, by month, homepage resources and other families.


</ul>
</div>
</li>
</ul>
</ul>

Posted from Diigo
The residue of my favorite links
are here.


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